昨天我发现我的20码经线’d花了上个星期的时间使事情变得难以挽回。十磅的纱线和20到30个工作小时,不费吹灰之力。和我’我必须订购更多的纱线才能再这样做。
但是我为此踢自己吗?没有。
Many of the things I 做 look really risky from the 出side. Putting together an incredibly complicated warp 20 yards long on unfamiliar equipment looks pretty crazy. But it’s not. It’s a calculated risk, and it was (I think) a good decision, even if the result appears to be 灾害. Making good decisions about risk 做 es not mean that you never lose. It just means that, on average, the benefits of succeeding 出weigh the expected losses from failing.
那我为什么要抓住这个机会呢?因为我主要担心的是在染色过程中经纱是否会缠结。不管经纱长度多大,其发生的可能性基本相同,因此进行长时间的经纱就没有了’比进行短暂的扭曲更冒险。我本来可以做一个短而窄的经纱作为测试,但是那几乎要花掉整条经纱的时间。 (那’s是因为大部分时间的投资是用于对经纱进行染色,这与经纱的长度或宽度无关,大约需要相同的时间长度。)’d通过首先放置一个样品节省的纱线成本约为150美元。那’可以赚很多钱,但花20个小时绕线并染另一根经线,却显得微不足道。 (一世’我假设我的时间每小时价值超过$ 7.50。)
我之所以这么说是因为很多织布工都很胆小,敢于冒险,“disaster”表示他们应该承担更少的风险。我不’t think that’s a good response. Even a good risk strategy will sometimes produce 灾害. And being too cautious also has a cost: the time and materials spent sampling, or the (much higher) creative cost of sticking to the tried and true rather than trying new things. So I would urge you, if you are thinking about risk, to figure 出 所有 涉及的成本和收益–不仅是材料成本,还包括时间和创意表达。
I 做 顺便相信采样–而且我会做很多事情,因为我通常会尽力而为,样品值得努力。但不总是。相反,我计算自己的风险–因为从长远来看,它可以节省时间,精力和材料。
这里 ’s a photo of the 失败了 warp, 通过 the way. It came 出 beautifully, exactly as I wanted, except for the tangles. I think I understand what happened and how to fix it – so I can’等待下风,染色和下一个光束!
